Picking up the pieces

Want an interesting read? If you can bring yourself to relive Saturday’s epic collapse, check out Fargo Forum columnist Mike McFeeley’s live blog of the game. It’s a reminder of just how dominant UC Davis was in the first half, and just how shocking the turnaround was in the second. I don’t think it diminishes North Dakota State’s accomplishment to call this a total Aggie meltdown (on the field, on the sideline, in the stands, total). The Bison were very good in the second half; that last drive was an instant classic. But North Dakota State also was in the right place at the right time. UC Davis lost its emotional edge and, just as last week, lacked the resolve to push back against downward rolling boulder.

Tactically, North Dakota State relaxed its blitzing in the second half, doing what everyone does to the Aggies these days, sagging more players into coverage and then running up and making tackles when UCD threw the ball short. You could say the Aggies abandoned the running game in the second half, and you would be partially right. But, really UCD entirely abandoned offense in the second half. It only snapped 24 plays after the interval. The Aggies had six second-half possessions, starting four with runs and two with incomplete passes. Its shortest second down distance to go was seven yards. Quarterback Jon Grant overthrew some short screen passes, but I didn’t see a whole lot of open receivers down the field. The two waved-off catches by Tony Kays didn’t help matters, but once you’re relying on acrobatic catches to pull you through, you’re already in trouble.

UCD continues to commit bad penalties and yield large chunks of yardage. I can’t pick out any one flag that hurt more than the others Saturday. But in the big picture, when you give up the winning score with four seconds to go, it’s pretty clear that any extra yardage you could have made your opponent travel, time you could have made it use, would have made some sort of difference.

So what next? I’m wary of placing too much weight on a full emotional analysis of any team. Too often that sort of reading reflects the opinion of the analyzer rather than any relation to the facts on the ground. But for the first time in my four years on this beat, the burden of proof is on the Aggies to show they still have the internal confidence to snag late victories. Monday is the 35th anniversary of the Miracle Game, when UCD scored 16 points in 22 second to upend Cal State Hayward. In 13 days, the Aggies take on their long time whipping boys over at Sac State. For many years, UCD got by with inferior athletes against the Hornets thanks to a firm belief in its own abilities. When they meet at Toomey, however, the teams will have traveled alternate trajectories. Sac State has won four of its last seven and might have turned a corner. And the Aggies, well, two straight collapses does not necessarily lend itself to confidence.