An outside chance

We didn't make the trip to Utah, preferring to turn our lasers on tomorrow's football signing day instead. But here's something to ponder as you listen to the game tonight. Of all the things that could have gone wrong this year for UC Davis, would anyone have expected the total wipeout from 3-point range we've seen this year?

Heading into tonight's game, UCD's 3-point shooting percentage sits at 29.5 percent. The Division I average (on Jan. 15, when the NCAA published the mid-season trend date) was a wisp more than 35 percent.

This wouldn't be such a big deal were the Aggies not so reliant on their outside shooting. They have already taken 474 attempts from beyond the arc in 21 games. Last year, with many of the same players, they hoisted 486 outside shots in 28 games (with a 35.4 percent success rate). UCD has taken 40.4 of its shots from 3-point range. The average D-I team and average Big West team both attempt 34.2 percent of their shots from downtown.

The problem with poor outside shooting is that once you start down that path, opponents don't let you come back. If you're peeling paint off the rims from outside, teams just pack in their defenses and let you keep doing it. I am so sick of watching the 2-3 zone that more than once I've considering doing an Oedipus (which seems like a bit of overreaction, now that I write it). But maybe there's a glimmer of hope. For 30 minutes against Cal Poly, UCD actually did a good a job of working the ball into the middle of defense and getting decent looks. It's starting front line went 20-for-27 for a combined 43 points. Maybe, just maybe, things are changing.