The ‘relegation six-pointer’

PORTLAND, Ore. – In the UC Davis locker room, everyone is now familiar with the story of Montana State. Last year the Bobcats lost to Division II Chadron State and were blown out at home, 45-0, by the Aggies. But MSU still won an at-large bid to the Division I-AA postseason with a 7-4 record.

People forget about Portland State, which finished with an identical 7-4 record. The Vikings also beat a Division I-A team, New Mexico (which last year was a better win than Colorado, the I-A team MSU beat), and didn’t lose to any lower division teams. So why did the committee take Montana State? Well, the Bobcats beat the Vikings 14-0 when the two teams played. Head-to-head results, therefore, matter a great deal.

There’s a term from English soccer that I like, the relegation six-pointer. It’s applied there when two teams at the lower end of the table meet (often with demotion to a lesser league at stake). The winning team earns three points and, more importantly, deprives the opponent of three points. That’s what these next two games most certainly are for the Aggies.

Obviously, It’s too early to tell which teams are going to end up being good this year. But recent history suggests the next two opponents – Portland State and Eastern Washington – have a chance to be in the running for at-large bids to the tournament. Recording head-to-head victories against a pair of Big Sky schools would both give the Aggies a leg-up on both of those teams, should they be vying for the same spot.

Is it too early be talking about playoffs? Maybe. Is it foolish to be talking about them for the Aggies in light of the loss to Division II Western Washington? Not at all. My first law of sports analysis is “No one game proves anything.” Sure the result was embarrassing, but it wouldn’t have counted either way for UCD’s playoff hopes. Everyone in Aggie camp that I talked to seemed to feel as though this team was over the defeat. And anyway, UCD still would have had to win eight of their last 10 to feel really good about their playoff chances come November. Seven out of 10 would earn them consideration, although it would be a long shot.

Good teams generally make their biggest jump between Week 1 and Week 2, so this week’s game probably will set the tone for the rest of the season.