At first glance it doesn't seem that way. Long Beach State is 4-16 and has won just once since the calendar turned to 2008, a 71-53 thrashing of UC Davis at The Pyramid on Jan. 12. But the Aggies must return the favor at home on Thursday in what is now the most meaningful game of the Division I era to date. The Big West won't invite its ninth-place team to the conference tournament this year, and a UCD loss to the 49ers would put it in a precarious mathematical position.
Here are the Big West standings so far: CSUN 7-1; Fullerton 7-2; UOP 6-2; UCSB 5-3; UCI 4-4; Poly 3-5; UCD 2-6; UCR 2-7; LBSU 1-7.
The first tiebreaker is the season series. If the Aggies lose to the 49ers they will be even with Long Beach record-wise at 2-7, but really a game behind thanks to the series sweep.
The second tiebreaker is the season series against the rest of the teams in the league in descending order. That means to break a tie right now, each team's record against Northridge would be compared. If both were 0-2, it would go to Fullerton and then to Pacific until the tie is broken. Of the teams currently in the bottom three, UCD currently has the best victory (over UC Irvine) although it may not stay that way. Riverside beat Cal Poly on Saturday and it's impossible to tell what's going on with the inconsistent Mustangs. The Anteaters play the Mustangs on Thursday in a game that has implications for the Aggies. If you can't tell, I love this tiebreaker because it creates league-wide intrigue for the entire month of February.
The third tiebreaker, for what it's worth, is a coin toss. If a coin toss determines who goes to the Big West Tournament and who doesn't, then the Big West needs to change either its format or its tiebreakers. Because that's not right.
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