Muddling through the Top 25

As he walked off the field Saturday afternoon his team’s 22-21 victory a South Dakota State player said -- sort of to the surrounding fans and teammates, but really to no one in particular -- “No way (UC Davis) is the No. 16 team in the country.” It’s a silly statement to make for two reasons. The first is by denigrating the opponent, he was really trashing his own team's victory. And second, how does he know? Not even the most expert pollster could look at a team and say, “Oh, that’s the 16th best team in the country.” And if you think you can, you’re just being contrarian for the sake of it. And good for you. We definitely need more contrarianism in the world.

UC Davis coach Bob Biggs said today on the Great West conference call that his team’s 4-4 record doesn’t represent how good it actually is. Given the team's talent, and the fact two of its losses are to top 10 teams, he can make a convincing case. This isn’t the NFL where, as Bill Parcells says, you are what your record says you are. In college, schools set their own slates. They have the ability to challenge themselves or they design a schedule for success (at least out of conference). In truth, UCD probably went too far in testing itself, although it beats the alternative. Here’s how I voted the Sports Network’s Top 25 poll. You may call me a homer for leaving Davis in if you like, but I’m simply not prepared to believe that non-scholarship San Diego belongs above the Aggies on this list.

1. Appalachian St.; 2. Montana; 3. NDSU; 4. Umass; 5. James Madison; 6. Youngstown; 7. Cal Poly; 8. Illinois St; 9. New Hampshire; 10. Tenn-Martin; 11. Northern Iowa; 12. Southern Illinois; 13. Richmond; 14. Furman; 15. Hampton; 16. Eastern Ill.; 17. Portland St.; 18. Coastal Carolina; 19. Montana St.; 20. Towson; 21. South Dakota St.; 22. UCD; 23. Charleston Southern; 24. San Diego; 25. Harvard.

Coming up tomorrow in the print edition: Biggs politely lights up San Diego’s Jim Harbaugh, the nuptials of Davis High’s field hockey coach and Pacific coach Bob Thomason reflecting on his team’s recent success.

Greetings from South Dakota

BROOKINGS, S.D. -- Good afternoon from Coughlin-Alumni Stadium. Click the title for some pregame updates.

--WR Brandon Rice did not make the trip. His hamstring, apparently, is stubbornly refusing to heal. This is the third consecutive game he has missed.

--The rental car said 50 degrees when I got out of the stadium. It is windy again, but it’s worse up here on the press level then it is down on the field. Last year in Sioux Falls, the end zones were completely open and created a sort of wind tunnel on the field. Here there is an enormous scoreboard at one end and pine trees at the other. It still could affect the kicking games, but the Aggies should be able to pass. The field itself is fairly chewed up, and has been since the opening week when a high school game was played in a driving rain.

--Everyone here is really impressed that the Band-uh has made the trip.

--Check the print edition tomorrow for an update on UC Davis’ conference situation, which, from an Aggie perspective can be summed up as not good.

A big media party

Last year, the NCAA put severe restrictions on media guides limiting the number of pages schools could use. I would like to formally thank the NCAA for doing that. I’m just back from Big West basketball media day, and my shoulders ache from toting the men’s guides in my briefcase. The women’s guides, dutifully fetched for my colleague Chris Saur, tore through the first plastic laundry bag I tried to put them in, forcing me to double bag. Over the next five days, the daily paper will have a series of Big West basketball stories, just to try and get you ready for the season. Some observations follow, after the jump.

--UC Davis seemed to draw more interest from the media contingent than in years past. The Aggie coaches and players have gained impartial observer status. They see everyone in the league up close, but have no real stake in the outcome of the conference.

--There was no formal media meeting with league commissioner Dennis Farrell. The topic of expansion, always near the surface in today’s college sports landscape, was not discussed at length in the coaches meetings. Just about everyone knows that Cal State Bakersfield is hoping for entry into the league, although league officials have been non-committal on the Roadrunners in every conversation I’ve had them, which, admittedly, is not many.

--The coaches are concerned about the Big West’s television package, which is less than staggering. In fact, it’s almost entirely contained within Southern California, Comcast Sports Net occasionally will pick up a local broadcast on a Friday, but tape delay is far from optimal. In college basketball, the biggest player is ESPN. There are two ESPN telecasts this year, a Big Monday game between Pacific and Long Beach and the conference championship game. UC Davis, potentially, will be on ESPN twice (although one of them is ESPNU) during the first four days of the season. UCD will help the league, if only to build a presence in Northern California. At least it will increase the number of conference games that matter to multiple media markets, rather than just greater L.A.

--The sense among seemingly everyone is that the overall quality of the league has improved on both the men’s and women’s sides. That should make for an interesting seasons worth of games here, even if the Ags are ineligible for the postseason.

Just the picks

Here’s my ballot in The Sports Network’s Top 25: 1. Appalachian St.; 2. Illinois St.; 3. Montana; 4. North Dakota State; 5. Massachusetts; 6. James Madison; 7. Northern Iowa; 8. Youngstown St; 9. Cal Poly; 10. Furman; 11. New Hampshire; 12. Eastern Ill.; 13. Tennessee-Martin; 14. Richmond; 15. UCD; 16. Southern Illinois; 17. Portland State; 18. Hampton; 19. Maine; 20. Coastal Carolina; 21. Montana St. 22. Towson; 23. Charleston Southern; 24. San Diego; 25. Harvard.

Meanwhile, in Minneapolis...

I usually live for blowouts, because they offer an opportunity to get your game story finished early. If the final minutes are of little consequence, you can use much the fourth quarter to get a great deal of writing done. But I spent the final minutes of Saturday’s dusting of Southern Utah with my eyes trained a slow-updating gamecast of North Dakota State’s highly anticipated fixture with Minnesota of the Big 10. The Bison almost pulled off a shocker on the order of UC Davis’ victory over Stanford, having the potential game-winning field blocked as time expired in a 10-9 loss.

The Bison dominated the game statistically, and were a couple of red-zone turnovers from crushing the Gophers. It’s a shame that North Dakota State is ineligible for the playoffs, because it’s starting to sound as though the Bison have a team that could win the Division I-AA national championship right now (well, in December anyway, no one could win the national championship right now).

It’s obviously disappointing, but from a perception point of view, the result is as good as a victory for NDSU. Remember last September, after the Aggies beat Stanford, when most everything in the immediate aftermath of the game was slanted toward, “What the heck happened to the Cardinal?” Well, in the frigid Midwest, the natural order is still intact. But it shouldn’t be, and that’s something for columnists and writers to get up in arms about. It’s going to be a great PR week for NDSU.

Actually, and we’ll cover this in print edition sometime this week, the Great West race has turned completely haywire. In San Luis Obispo, South Dakota State scored 23 points in the fourth quarter to beat Cal Poly. Two of the three conference favorites (UCD and the Mustangs) now have a loss. Suddenly next weekend’s trip for the Aggies to Brookings, S.D. looks like an absolute monster. Cal Poly is now in serious trouble from a postseason perspective, with games against North Dakota State, Montana and I-A San Diego State still looming. The next couple of weeks should be a lot of fun.

More on the running backs

Today’s game preview is devoted to UC Davis’ running back situation, which, on the continuum of circumstances, is located somewhere between not-optimal and dire. It’s not so much this year’s team, but rather the next two seasons that should have Bob Biggs and his staff concerned. They have done a good job of finding potential impact players for that position group. But there will have very little experience. Maybe that’s overrated, but I don’t think so.

Look at how things stand at tight end this year, a position group where the program went from graybeard to super-green in a single graduation ceremony. Now, even with scaled back responsibilities, those players are still trying to find their way in UCD’s offense. That’s not a huge deal given the emergence of Chris Carter and, to a lesser extent, Brandon Rice in the passing game, but it may be down the road.

As it says in today’s paper, Marcus Nolan will start, which is a nice story. Nolan fought his way back from a knee injury and has been pretty impressive all season. Nolan was one of three seniors at running back entering the season n Nelson Doris and Alex Garfio were the other two. UCD’s plan was to play Nolan, Doris and sophomore Demario Warren, while redshirting Garfio. That way you would have a senior and a junior to anchor the group next year. That script was scrubbed less than week into fall camp. With his foot not responding to treatment, Doris and Garfio swapped places. And everything may still work out. But you can never be sure with injuries like that.

“Now we have three freshmen (alphabetically: Marquise Lawrence, Joe Trombetta, P.J. Vallier), in the program and no experience for next year,” Aggie coach Bob Biggs said. “Nelson may be able to play, but we won’t know that until the spring.”

UCD is extremely high on those three freshmen. But Biggs probably will be reticent to hand over the keys to the backfield to them immediately. If Doris isn’t available, Warren may be asked to start next season. Warren impressed me last year, walking into a difficult situation and doing everything that was asked of him. It’s not clear to me, however, whether the Aggie staff projects him to be a starter long-term. That doesn’t mean much right now, because UCD’s coaches readily admit they don’t project a lot of things that end up happening. I wouldn’t be surprised to see UCD bring in a junior college player just to bridge that experience gap.

There’s also this to watch: the Aggies have three running backs with which to play the final five games. Injuries being what they are, especially at that position, UCD has to hope that will be enough. By the end of year in 2005, the team was dressing a few true freshman for just-in-case duty. We may start to see that as well in the coming weeks.

How I vote

There are plenty of things wrong with The Sports Network’s I-AA poll. Too many Sports Information Directors vote in it, so conflicts of interest abound. There aren’t enough games on television, so often you’re evaluating teams on record and reputation as much as anything. And, also, I’m not sure people take their voting responsibilities all that seriously. Back east, No. 13 James Madison drilled No. 1 New Hampshire in Durham, N.H. last week. But in this week’s poll, New Hampshire was still ahead of James Madison. What’s up with that?

So in the interest of full disclosure, here's how I vote. Some voters I know simply make their changes against the previous week's poll. I don't. I keep my own Top-25 in an Excel spreadsheet. So the first thing I do on Sunday morning is enter in the weekend's results. If there’s something that seems strange or surprising to me, I’ll go up on the Internet and try to find out more. For instance, in the above-referenced game, it turns out that James Madison shut down New Hampshire’s offense from the middle of the second quarter well into the fourth. I've seen that New Hampshire offense, and know more than a little about that personnel. So it was a solid beating, not a fluke.

After I know who won and who lost, I start ranking the teams. When I vote I’m trying to balance four questions: 1. Who beat whom?; 2. How good is their schedule really? 3. Who deserves to be rewarded? 4. Who deserves to be punished? And usually that get me my list.

The most important thing to keep in mind is that you can’t trust records.

Take Hampton, which is 7-0 this year. Last year I totally overvalued the Pirates, voting them No. 1 for much of the year because they were 11-0. But I didn’t take into account their strength of their schedule. So I bet Jeff Kolpack, who covers North Dakota State for the Fargo Forum, that Hampton would win a round in the I-AA postseason. The Pirates were blown out at home. So when Kolpack hits town in three weeks, the first round of drinks is on me. Hampton may have a perfect record. But I don’t trust the Pirates’ conference; and I have seen them on television win an overtime game against less-than-impressive Grambling. That’s why I have Hampton 12th.

The whole process takes about 45 minutes.

Here is my full ballot in this week’s poll:

1. Appalachian State; 2. Cal Poly; 3. Illinois State; 4. Montana; 5. Youngstown St.; 6. North Dakota State; 7. UMass; 8. James Madison; 9. New Hampshire; 10. Northern Iowa; 11. Richmond; 12. Hampton; 13. Furman; 14. Eastern Illinois; 15. Southern Illinois; 16. Tennessee-Martin; 17. Harvard; 18. Alabama A&M; 19. UCD; 20. Portland State; 21. Maine; 22. Jackson State. 23. Coastal Carolina; 24. Jacksonville State; 25. San Diego.

Kolpack, also votes. To see his ballot, you can check out http://www.areavoices.com/bisonmedia/”?> his blog.

The Chris Carter Show

According to UC Davis head coach Bob Biggs, here’s what All-American Tony Kays has said about Chris Carter: “He’s as a good as I am, and he’s only a freshman.” Carter has played just six college games and has yet to actually look like a freshman in any respect. He leads the team in catches and receptions, and also in jaw dropping plays. His second touchdown in the section quarter Saturday, where he beat two waves of tacklers to push into the end zone was probably the coolest play of the season so far.

Carter’s consistency has been his best attribute, but this is really the first time he’s taken over a game for any period of time. It’s going to be interesting to see how defenses react to what they see on film. Most teams have keyed on Tony Kays, rolling double teams at him periodically. Now they have to contend with Carter, who can beat single coverage on the deep pass and also track down the ball over the middle. You can’t actually double-team two receivers without creating serious holes elsewhere. But we’ll see which particular brand of poison defensive coordinators will pick.

A word on the opponent: Central Arkansas was clearly a step below UCD in terms of quality. The Bears had the athletes to compete with the Aggies in the first string, but as the game wore on, it became obvious that the team’s talent level had not yet caught up with its scholarship level. UCD won’t argue with the win, nor should it. But there’s a different scale during this three-game stretch (UCA, Southern Utah and South Dakota State) than there was in the last one. Where it was sufficient to prove that they belonged on the field with the likes of Youngstown and Montana State, the Aggies must avoid the proverbial letdown game over the next two weeks.

Tuesday morning quarterback

The margin was so thin on Saturday, just as it was two weeks earlier at Youngstown State. UCD failed to move the ball on its first two drives of the third quarter, which led directly to Cal Poly points. If the Aggies make a first down on either of those drives, they probably reverse the field position deficit and win that game. If you can force Cal Poly to drive more than 40 yards, you're probably in good shape.

Now the question is, what do we make of this UCD team after five games. As you'll see below, I've put the Aggies at 19th this week. They are 18th in the poll, so other voters clearly have them higher. Here's my argument: UCD is 2-3. It has destroyed its two lesser opponents. It is probably a combined four unmade plays from pulling out two road wins against seriously good teams. It is playing a schedule that is designed for difficulty rather than success. I think that's a reasonable case.

But now we've reached the limits of football analysis. No one game is really proof of anything, but in football that's often all you get to judge. Are these two previous Aggie defeats a sign of systemic deficiencies in the team? Or are the Cal Poly and Youngstown State games just two isolated instances of the bounces going the wrong way, something that tends to happen on the opponent's field? I'm still leaning toward the latter.

It will be nice for everyone involved to have a home game, but certainly not a cure-all. The Aggies are 8-6 (5-5 against I-AA teams) at home during the Division I transition, which is not an overwhelming mark. Toomey Field itself will not be sufficient to get the Aggies back to .500. Central Arkansas presents some serious challenges, most notably a very good quarterback and a 6-foot-6 receiver in Aaron Fairooz.

Here's how I voted this week in The Sports Network Division I-AA poll: 1. New Hampshire; 2. Appalachian St.; 3. Cal Poly; 4. Illinois St; 5. Montana; 6. Youngstown; 7. Umass; 8. NDSU; 9. Northern Iowa; 10. Richmond; 11. Hampton; 12. Southern Illinois; 13. Furman; 14. James Madison; 15. Eastern Ill.; 16. Harvard; 17. Tenn-Martin; 18. Alabama A&M; 19. UCD; 20. Portland St.; 21 Central Conn. St; 22. Maine; 23. Jacksonville St.; 24. Jackson St; 25 San Diego.

The traveling road show

We'll be dissecting the Aggies here in the next day or two, but Saturday's game brought to a close the longest road stretch in the history of the program. Hopefully you've been following the team's exploits in the daily paper. What follows are the exploits of your humble beat writer, after what has been a long six weeks.

Best atmosphere: Not surprisingly, it was Cal Poly on Saturday. The students were in rare form. On the field for the final five minutes, it was incredible to watch them in section behind the Aggie end zone jumping up and down as one. It was like watching the waves lap up against the beach over in Morro Bay.

Latest I-AA insight: There is nothing at all small time about the atmosphere at some I-AA venues. I'm thinking especially of Montana State and Youngstown State, where the game presentation, fan passion and facilities are top-notch. You'd expect that in Montana, where the Bobcats and Montana Grizzlies play the highest level football in the state. But Youngstown was a surprise. I sort of figured it would be a slightly larger scale version of UC Davis -- a large school located in the sphere of influence of so many major colleges (Ohio St., Penn St., etc.) that the I-AA game just would get lost. But it's not like that. I couldn't tell if it was a case of football's place in the fabric of Ohio; or if it's because the program resolutely insists that it's not small time. And it's probably a mix of both.

Best press box meals: Tie (TCU and Youngstown State). I expected a good spread at TCU, what with being a I-A program in Texas and I was not disappointed. It was a Mexican feast from an area restaurant, with great barbecued meat. Two weeks later in Youngstown, the spread was simply incredible. It had everything from pizza to sandwiches to chicken wings to pastries. I ate way too much.

Worst press box: This gives me no joy, because I really like the people down there, but it is Cal Poly in a rout. Nothing else is even close The renovated facilities (which include a new press box) can't open soon enough. Saturday was especially difficult because the media relations staff down there had to accomodate four separate radio broadcasts. And without high-speed Internet, there was just one phone line available for the entire press corps to use during the game. I spent the whole third quarter trying to use the only available dial-up line to send the photos that appeared in Sunday's edition. That meant I missed a lot of the action when the fans in front of me stood up, because my laptop was perched preciously on a bench. Let's just say that I look forward to the future down in SLO.

Best restaurant meal: Tomato Soup and Steak at 4B's in Butte, Mont. This restaurant was recommended to me by a bunch of Butte-natives on my long connection from Salt Lake to Big Sky Country. And they didn't steer me wrong. The soup is great, both creamy and garlicky. It wasn't all that cold by Montana standards, but you can just imagine it sticking to your ribs when it's 20 below. It was so good, I went back the second night, bypassing the chance to eat in the more cosmopolitan Bozeman. Plus the combo is only $9. Can't beat that.

Favorite trip: From a tourist point-of-view, and even with the nine-hour stop in Salt Lake, it had to be Montana State. I had never visited the state, but was just awed by the natural beauty of the state. From a business travelers point-of-view, it had to be Northern Colorado, because I was able to get home Saturday night. Always a major plus.

Best coverage innovation: The Great West Football Conference teleconference, which has allowed us to start doing a weekly notebook. We're hoping that gives you as readers an insight into the conference and national I-AA scene.

Best tailgating accessory: The satellite dish. Plenty of people in the parking lots at TCU and Youngstown had them. TCU fans were quite interested in the Texas-Ohio State game going on at the same time. There were fewer of those at YSU, although they were quite interested in another Ohio State game, the one against Penn State.

Worst airport: Without a doubt, Las Vegas (layover on the way back from Northern Colorado). It reeks of stale cigarette smoke and the food options appear to be Taco Bell and Taco Bell. I dread that airport.

Worst hotel room: The Comfort Inn Pittsburgh Airport. There were thin walls, so I could hear everything that was going on in the room next door. Everything.

Basketball Notes

Is it too early to start talking basketball? Oh well, I made my plane reservations to Durham, N.C. yesterday, so it’s on my mind.

First things first, the UC Davis-Georgia Southern game on Nov. 12 in the first round of the College Basketball Experience Classic will be televised on ESPNU. I don’t personally know anyone who gets ESPNU at home, but that probably means it will be around on TV (I’m thinking the Grad here). According to the ESPN schedule, the game starts at 3 p.m. PT. The winners’ bracket game in this pod is slated for 4 p.m. Monday on ESPN2. The Aggies will not return to campus after the tournament, heading directly to El Paso to play UTEP and then up to Oregon to take on Portland.

On a slightly more logistical note, both UCD teams are talking about switching to the opposite bench this year. Among other reasons, this would be done to avoid having the home and visiting teams criss-cross on the court on the way to locker rooms. There haven’t been any problems in my three basketball season with the paper, but there could be. And for those who care about how they get their news, we are also, apparently, losing the nifty little media room that sports information had set up underneath the stands behind press row. That will now be offices.

Practice starts next weekend. It’s hard to believe

Sunday morning quarterback

I’m off Monday, so I figured I’d check in today with some brief notes, just to help you get ready for Horseshoe week. UCD will bus to the Central Coast Friday morning for Saturday night’s game. Word is that it’s already sold out, although I haven’t confirmed that. For the uninitiated, Cal Poly views UC Davis as its biggest football rival. Those Mustang teams that don’t beat the Aggies won’t have their pictures posted in the team locker room. So the stakes are pretty high.

--This week is vital for Cal Poly. Everyone picked the Mustangs to win the Great West this season, and some even had them progressing deep into the I-AA postseason. But after a month’s worth of games, I think the Mustangs are going to have some real trouble fending off North Dakota State (4-0, including a D-I-A win over Ball State) and UC Davis in conference. Cal Poly has always relied heavily on its defense, but this year’s offense is lagging even by those standards. Part of that has been the absence of running back James Noble (ankle). But he ran for 130 yards last night and the Mustangs still needed last minute heroics to beat Southern Utah.

--From a personal point of view, it was really nice to wake up this morning and not have to hop on an airplane to get home. I can only imagine what it was like for the players, who, in addition to traveling, have had to play football games.

--It is getting harder and harder to fill in the bottom seven of my ballot in the Sports Network’s Division I-AA Top 25. I want to give an honest opinion, while also rewarding teams for winning and punishing them for exceptionally bad losses. On the other hand, having watched East Coast I-AA football for four years in college, I have a pretty severe bias against it. And I can’t believe I included non-scholarship San Diego (which comes to Toomey on Nov. 25), but the Toreros are 4-0 and absolutely killing people.

Here’s how I voted: 1. New Hampshire; 2. Appalachian St.; 3. Cal Poly; 4. Illinois St.; 5. Montana; 6. Youngstown; 7. Umass; 8. Richmond; 9. Furman; 10. NDSU; 11. Northern Iowa; 12. Hampton; 13. Southern Illinois; 14. James Madison; 15. UCD; 16. Eastern Ill.; 17. Portland St.; 18. Harvard; 19. Delaware; 20. Towson; 21. Alabama A&M; 22. Central Conn. St; 23. Georgia Southern; 24. Tenn-Martin; 25. San Diego.