Tuesday morning quarterback

The margin was so thin on Saturday, just as it was two weeks earlier at Youngstown State. UCD failed to move the ball on its first two drives of the third quarter, which led directly to Cal Poly points. If the Aggies make a first down on either of those drives, they probably reverse the field position deficit and win that game. If you can force Cal Poly to drive more than 40 yards, you're probably in good shape.

Now the question is, what do we make of this UCD team after five games. As you'll see below, I've put the Aggies at 19th this week. They are 18th in the poll, so other voters clearly have them higher. Here's my argument: UCD is 2-3. It has destroyed its two lesser opponents. It is probably a combined four unmade plays from pulling out two road wins against seriously good teams. It is playing a schedule that is designed for difficulty rather than success. I think that's a reasonable case.

But now we've reached the limits of football analysis. No one game is really proof of anything, but in football that's often all you get to judge. Are these two previous Aggie defeats a sign of systemic deficiencies in the team? Or are the Cal Poly and Youngstown State games just two isolated instances of the bounces going the wrong way, something that tends to happen on the opponent's field? I'm still leaning toward the latter.

It will be nice for everyone involved to have a home game, but certainly not a cure-all. The Aggies are 8-6 (5-5 against I-AA teams) at home during the Division I transition, which is not an overwhelming mark. Toomey Field itself will not be sufficient to get the Aggies back to .500. Central Arkansas presents some serious challenges, most notably a very good quarterback and a 6-foot-6 receiver in Aaron Fairooz.

Here's how I voted this week in The Sports Network Division I-AA poll: 1. New Hampshire; 2. Appalachian St.; 3. Cal Poly; 4. Illinois St; 5. Montana; 6. Youngstown; 7. Umass; 8. NDSU; 9. Northern Iowa; 10. Richmond; 11. Hampton; 12. Southern Illinois; 13. Furman; 14. James Madison; 15. Eastern Ill.; 16. Harvard; 17. Tenn-Martin; 18. Alabama A&M; 19. UCD; 20. Portland St.; 21 Central Conn. St; 22. Maine; 23. Jacksonville St.; 24. Jackson St; 25 San Diego.